Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Christmas, betting and a wrap of the 2011 fantasy season

'Tis the season, as they say, and I'm happy to be enjoying it with my family and friends. Since returning from the UK I haven't yet had the chance to catch up with all of my friends, but I will get to that over the next eight to ten days.

Christmas was a low key affair, which is just the way I like it. No superfluous trinkets or over-the-top celebrations; just family and friends in close quarters having a good time. It is how it should be. Candlelit dinner was fantastic and I give all the kudos to my parents, who cooked a tempting spread of goodies.

Now, time for some life updates (brought to you byyyyy....)

I bet you...

I was on Facebook chat last week with a friend of mine. During the course of our conversation, the idea of betting on the spreads of NFL games came up. This friend of mine has an account on a betting website and often does what are known as accumulator bets on the games. The idea behind it is simple - pick the winners of a few games, adding the odds together and put on a fiver. The rewards one can reap are significant.

So I decided I'd give it a lash. Last week I placed a (far too optimistic) bet on fifteen of the NFL games. In other words, I went for glory. I have no regrets, but I feel that this week I am in a better position and instead of opting for the "home run", to coin a baseball phrase, I am instead going to be prudent in my approach and handpick four or five games. In fact, the friend I just mentioned in the previous paragraph will be coming over for the games, so we'll be able to keep a close eye on our bets as it all transpires. I'm really looking forward to it.

I enjoy the unpredictability of betting and the sheer thrill of it all. Pulling for a particular outcome in the hopes that maybe, just maybe, you'll strike gold and find that pot at the end of the rainbow. It is fun, exciting and filled with promise in the form of potential rewards.

My kind of town

I will have some money coming in soon and with it I am hoping to book a trip to see my beloved Carolina Panthers play the Chicago Bears in Chicago, IL, next season. The schedule is released in early April normally, so I will likely book it then to ensure good seats and a decent price. I'm really excited about it because my dad may be accompanying me. I would go alone if I had to, but I'd like to share it with someone.

Right now it's just an idea, but hopefully if I have a job by then I'll be able to partly fund it with that.

Fantasy Football Talk

Tune out now, all ye who are not fans of the greatest game on earth.

I've lost you all, haven't I? Well, for anyone who cares, here is the final update on my dynasty fantasy football teams and a little preview of what is to come in 2012.

Record: 5-9

It's the league that I just haven't been able to get over the top in. I'm confident that I can change that in 2012 though. There are many reasons for my optimism:

  • A young roster that has been infused recently with talents like Denarius Moore and Percy Harvin
  • Two first round picks in the upcoming rookie draft, both of which will be in the top 6
  • Lost close games this season (3 games decided by 6 points or less) and finished in mid-table in terms of points scored
  • Defeated the league champion, Oldguru, in Week 12
I've slowly but surely shaped this team into a form I think can be a perennial playoff contender. The two first round picks should turn into instant starters. As for the projected starting lineup in 2012:

QB - Matt Ryan
RB - Marshawn Lynch
RB - No. 1 pick
WR - Larry Fitzgerald
WR - Percy Harvin
WR - Denarius Moore
WR - Demaryius Thomas
TE - Jermaine Gresham

There is still plenty of work to be done, notably at the running back position. Overall, I like the direction of the team and once the depth can be enhanced I think I can compete for a playoff spot.

Team Name: The Wet Bandits
Record: 10-2

Oh, what could have been! Everything looked rosy in this league until the final few weeks of the season. I was 10-2 going into the playoffs with a real chance at repeating as champion, until Matt Forte had to go and get injured. My RB depth beyond him was poor and I blame myself for that. I have young backs behind him (Shane Vereen, Taiwan Jones, Dion Lewis) but not enough veteran depth. Donald Brown gave me a fighting chance but he is no more than a RB3 on a good day. Add to that the fact that Jahvid Best went on IR earlier in the season and I found myself in a really tough spot.

Prior to the injury, Forte had been a 15 point player every week. Afterwards, I struggled to put together a backfield. That's why my offseason priority is getting better at RB.

The playoffs are now over and I leave this season humbled and hungry for more next year, with a return to championship glory on my mind. The team is set up to succeed for the next few years and I have confidence in my ability to pick the right players in the veteran and rookie drafts. I have to congratulate the champion Jaz, who simply whooped the competition on the way to a 9-0 postseason run in the round robin stage. I managed 8-1 last year, but 9-0 is impressive.

The projected starting line-up for 2012 is as follows, although decisions on cutting players and free agent acquisitions will change this:

QB Drew Brees
RB Matt Forte
RB ?
WR Steve Smith
WR Michael Crabtree
WR Antonio Brown
TE Jimmy Graham
TE Jason Witten
DE Justin Tuck (hope he returns to his former self)
DE Charles Johnson
DT ?
LB Navorro Bowman
LB Stephen Tulloch
LB Lance Briggs
LB ?

And we all know DB is something of a crapshoot...

League: FX3 IDP
Record: 10-3 (league champion)

I nervously checked my MFL app on my iPod Touch yesterday to find out the result of the championship game and I was overjoyed to find out that I had won the league. It is my only championship of the season, but it is a good one to win. I put up 223 points, enough to beat the highest scoring team in the league by 20 points or so. Aaron Rodgers' display on SNF - 5 TD passes - really helped my cause, but it was a team effort.

I feel really good about this league going forward. Thanks to a trade I made in the initial draft, I have the 1.03 pick in the rookie draft, meaning either Blackmon/Luck/Richardson will fall into my lap. I also have the 1.12, so I may trade up to 1.01 or make a trade for next year. At any rate, I'm thrilled with the win. It's not a money league, but it feels so gooooooood.

Projected starting lineup: I'm the champ! I don't need to worry about that kind of thing. :)

League: DG IDP
Record: 12-1 (lost to eventual champion in playoffs by 0.4 pts, finished 3rd)

This one is going to sting for a while. Despite having the best record and scoring the most points by over 400 points, I failed to come up with the championship. It was my second playoff appearance in as many years and I just couldn't finish the job. Losing the semi-final by 0.4 pts was a heartbreaker, as Aldon Smith just couldn't come up with that extra assist or pass defensed to put me over the top.

On the bright side, my team is still intact with 'win now' players and I should be competing for the division title again next season. The league is going to be downsized a little bit, which I am all for. I think some of the teams have become too lackadaisical. Offseason needs include RB depth and DE depth.

Make no mistake - Puntzilla will be back stronger next year!

~ FIN ~

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